🔗 Share this article

Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.