🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."