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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.